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Showing posts with label Investing. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Investing. Show all posts

Monday, 20 April 2026

Investing Updates: CapitaLand Ascendas REIT preferential offering oversubscribed with strong excess demand


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ChatGPT:


The preferential offering by CapitaLand Ascendas REIT was strongly oversubscribed, signalling robust investor demand despite mixed participation from existing unitholders.

Launched at S$2.35 per unit on the basis of 28 new units per 1,000 held, the offering aimed to fund part of a S$1.4 billion acquisition in Singapore and Japan. Total applications reached 315.4 million units—about 244% of the 129.1 million units available—driven largely by excess applications rather than initial entitlements.

Valid acceptances from entitled unitholders amounted to 96.1 million units, or 74.45% of the total offering, indicating that not all investors took up their allocated shares. This left around 33 million units available for excess allocation. However, demand for excess units surged to 219.3 million units—about 6.6 times the available balance—meaning applicants are unlikely to receive their full requested amounts.

Importantly, the REIT’s sponsor, CLI RE Fund Investments, fully subscribed to its entitlement, reinforcing confidence in the exercise. Post-offering, it will hold about 16.07% of total units.

From a fundamentals perspective, the acquisitions funded by this exercise are expected to be accretive. Pro forma figures suggest a 2.1% increase in FY2025 distribution per unit (DPU), rising further to around 4.1% when including additional acquisitions. Financial metrics remain stable, with only a slight increase in leverage and an improvement in net asset value.

Overall, the strong excess demand helps absorb unsubscribed units and reduces overhang concerns. Combined with attractive valuation metrics—such as a dividend yield of 5.9% above historical averages—the REIT remains appealing for income-focused investors.

Investing Updates: Why I Think It Make Sense To Invest Your CPF OA Savings In A Global Portfolio Through Endowus


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ChatGPT:


The author argues that investing excess CPF Ordinary Account (OA) savings through Endowus can be a sensible way to achieve higher long-term growth—provided certain conditions are met.

First, “excess” OA funds refer to amounts beyond what is needed to cover mortgage payments for a few years as a safety buffer. Once this buffer is secured, leaving all funds in the OA earning a risk-free 2.5% may not be the most efficient strategy for long-term retirement growth. Investing offers the potential for higher returns, though not without trade-offs.

A key consideration is cost. OA interest is both risk-free and fee-free, whereas investing through Endowus involves a 0.40% annual management fee plus underlying fund fees. Therefore, returns must exceed these costs to justify investing.

Risk is another major factor. Unlike guaranteed OA interest, investment returns fluctuate and may result in losses. This risk can be managed by choosing conservative portfolios, maintaining a long investment horizon (ideally 10+ years), and diversifying globally to reduce concentration in any single market.

The author prefers Endowus’ advised portfolios rather than building a DIY portfolio, citing convenience and lack of time. These portfolios also provide global exposure, which helps overcome Singapore’s small and concentrated market, allowing access to major international companies and sectors.

Ultimately, investing CPF OA savings is not for everyone. It only makes sense if one has sufficient housing reserves, accepts market risk, and has decades before retirement. While transferring OA funds to the Special Account is a safer alternative, investing part of excess OA savings in a globally diversified portfolio may offer better long-term growth for those with the right profile.

Sunday, 19 April 2026

Investing Updates: What to Expect in the Week Ahead (Retail Sales, Flash PMIs & Earnings from TSLA, INTC, BA)


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ChatGPT:


The week ahead is packed with major earnings, key economic data, and ongoing geopolitical concerns, all of which could shape market direction after equities recently hit record highs.

Earnings focus:
Heavyweights across sectors are reporting. Healthcare giant UnitedHealth kicks off Monday under pressure from margin concerns, while GE Aerospace and RTX are expected to benefit from strong aerospace and defense demand. On Tuesday, Boeing remains in turnaround mode with expected losses, making production progress and cash burn critical. Tesla headlines the week, with investors watching vehicle deliveries, AI developments, robotaxi timelines, and energy storage growth after a weak revenue backdrop. IBM and Lam Research will provide insight into AI software and semiconductor demand.

Midweek, attention shifts to American Express and Intel. AmEx faces slowing consumer spending trends, while Intel’s strong stock rally contrasts with near-zero earnings expectations, setting up potential volatility. Newmont may benefit from surging gold prices. By Thursday, Procter & Gamble will highlight consumer resilience amid tariffs, currency headwinds, and weak sentiment.

Economic data:
Retail sales (Monday) will gauge consumer strength, while Wednesday’s Flash PMIs are the most important macro release, offering an early look at April business activity and the impact of tariffs and energy costs. Jobless claims will also be monitored for labor market signals.

Market backdrop:
Markets enter the week with strong momentum. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq recently hit record highs, driven by AI optimism, easing geopolitical tensions, and strong earnings. Tech and AI-linked stocks led gains, with sharp rebounds in companies like Oracle, Tesla, and Microsoft.

Overall, this week combines high-stakes earnings with crucial economic indicators, making it a key test of whether the current market rally can sustain its momentum.

Friday, 17 April 2026

Investing Updates: More older millennials and Gen X in Singapore investing in cryptocurrency: report


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ChatGPT:


A 2026 report by Independent Reserve shows that cryptocurrency adoption in Singapore is rising, particularly among older millennials and Gen X in the “sandwich class” (aged 35–54). About one-third of Singaporeans now own or have owned crypto, up from 29% in 2025, with participation especially high among middle-income individuals supporting both children and ageing parents.

For this group, crypto investing is driven more by financial necessity than novelty. Around 77% see it as important for long-term wealth building, significantly higher than the broader population. They are also more active traders, with 65% having sold crypto in the past year versus 44% overall.

Despite growing interest, most investors remain cautious. About 76% allocate 10% or less of their portfolio to crypto, consistent with a typical 70/20/10 asset allocation approach where crypto falls into higher-risk investments. Key motivations include portfolio diversification (38%), access to growth opportunities beyond traditional finance (33%), wealth accumulation (41%), and legacy planning (55%). Only a small minority (11%) invest for ideological reasons.

Investment behaviour also matters. Those using dollar-cost averaging (DCA) report better outcomes, with 55% seeing gains and only 15% reporting losses, compared with weaker results among irregular investors. Long-term holding further improves performance, with 87% reporting profits over a 10-year horizon.

However, barriers remain. Nearly half of non-investors cite price volatility as the main deterrent. Both investors and non-investors emphasise the importance of clear regulation, responsible industry practices, and stronger consumer protection to build trust. The findings suggest that while crypto is increasingly viewed as a legitimate part of diversified portfolios, greater education and understanding are still needed.

Investing Updates: Let’s combine the benefits of the broker custody model and the seamless experience of the CDP


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ChatGPT:


The article argues that Singapore’s stock market could be strengthened by combining the advantages of the broker custody model with the Central Depository (CDP) system, rather than favouring one over the other.

The CDP model remains popular among local retail investors because it is simple, cost-free, and gives shareholders direct ownership of their securities. This direct ownership makes corporate participation seamless—investors receive communications directly and can easily attend annual general meetings (AGMs) without intermediaries. Such ease of exercising shareholder rights is a key strength that should not be lost.

However, the broker custody model is increasingly used, especially by investors who trade overseas markets. It is also the dominant system globally. One major benefit is consolidation: investors can hold both local and foreign securities in a single account, making portfolio management more convenient. Brokers can also offer value-added services such as investment advice, fractional trading, and portfolio management. Because brokers have visibility over clients’ holdings, they can provide more tailored guidance—for example, advising on whether to participate in a REIT rights issue.

Despite these advantages, broker custody has drawbacks. Shareholders do not hold securities in their own name, which complicates participation in AGMs. Investors must arrange proxies through brokers, often with significant lead time, making the process less convenient and potentially discouraging engagement.

The article concludes that while both models have merit, the future lies in integrating their strengths. As regulators explore expanding broker custody usage, they should also incorporate the seamless shareholder experience offered by the CDP. A hybrid approach could enhance investor convenience, improve access to services, and ultimately help revitalise Singapore’s equity market.

Investing Updates: iEdge Next 50 Liquidity Weighted Index outperforms STI on tech strength


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The iEdge Singapore Next 50 Liquidity Weighted Index has outperformed the Straits Times Index (STI) in 2026, delivering a 9.7% year-to-date return versus the STI’s 8.9%. This index tracks the 50 largest Singapore-listed companies just below the STI but differs by weighting stocks based on trading liquidity rather than market capitalisation, reflecting where investor activity is most concentrated.

Liquidity has risen significantly, with average daily turnover reaching S$275 million through mid-April, up 43% from 2025. Valuations have also improved, as seen in the increase in median price-to-book ratios from 1.05 to 1.23. This suggests stronger investor demand and engagement with mid-cap stocks.

Technology has emerged as the key driver of performance. Four major tech-related constituents—Frencken, UMS, CSE Global, and iFast—make up nearly 20% of the index and have collectively delivered strong gains, averaging 43% returns since 2025. Their trading activity has also surged, with turnover increasing 2.5 times. Growth in these firms is linked to the global artificial intelligence-driven semiconductor cycle and rising demand for digital infrastructure.

While real estate investment trusts (REITs) remain the largest sector and provide stability through steady cash flows, the momentum has shifted toward technology and digital infrastructure. This reflects a broader trend where capital is flowing into sectors tied to data centres, automation, AI-enabled manufacturing, and digital services.

The index’s liquidity-weighted approach highlights stocks attracting sustained investor participation rather than simply large firms. Looking ahead, Singapore’s tech ecosystem is expected to remain supported, though growth will be more execution-driven and capital-intensive, favouring companies with scale, reliability, and strong cross-border capabilities.

Monday, 13 April 2026

Investing Updates: Is the 1-year T-bill better than the 6-month T-bill and fixed deposits?


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The article examines whether the 1-year Singapore T-bill offers better value than the 6-month T-bill and fixed deposits amid fluctuating interest rates.

T-bill yields have recently rebounded, with the 6-month yield rising to about 1.47% and the 1-year T-bill closing yield at around 1.46% as of April 2026. While yields are similar, demand for T-bills has remained strong, which may keep yields competitive but also uncertain at auction.

A key consideration is reinvestment risk. Investors choosing two consecutive 6-month T-bills may achieve similar or better returns if rates rise, but face uncertainty if rates fall. In contrast, the 1-year T-bill allows investors to lock in current rates for a longer period, offering more certainty. This may be appealing given expectations that US interest rates could remain largely stable in 2026, with only modest cuts projected later.

Compared to fixed deposits, the 1-year T-bill currently offers a slightly higher yield (1.46% vs about 1.40% for best 1-year fixed deposits). However, shorter-term fixed deposits can offer higher rates (around 1.50% for 6 months), though they often require minimum deposits (e.g. S$10,000).

Singapore Savings Bonds (SSBs) provide similar 1-year returns (around 1.40%) but offer greater flexibility, including the option to redeem early and higher long-term returns if held for up to 10 years.

Ultimately, the choice depends on priorities. The 1-year T-bill is suitable for investors seeking to lock in a stable return and reduce reinvestment risk, while the 6-month T-bill or fixed deposits may suit those ΥΈΥΎ value flexibility or wish to take advantage of potential rate increases.

Friday, 10 April 2026

Property Updates: Property upgrading has built wealth for many, but what is the full cost of the dream?


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Property upgrading in Singapore—typically moving from public housing to private property—has long been seen as a reliable path to wealth. However, this narrative deserves closer scrutiny. While past generations benefited from rising prices and favourable conditions, today’s buyers face higher costs, tighter regulations, and more uncertain returns.

A common scenario illustrates the trade-offs: a couple upgrades from an HDB flat to a condo, doubling their mortgage and stretching their finances. Despite meeting lending criteria, their increased expenses—loan repayments, maintenance fees, childcare, and insurance—leave little financial buffer. The result is often longer working hours, lifestyle sacrifices, and mounting stress, raising the question of whether this is truly an “upgrade” in quality of life.

Experts like Christopher Tan argue that past success has been ΰ¦­ুলly treated as a universal rule. What worked in earlier decades may not apply today. Similarly, entrepreneur Jeremy Ko highlights the psychological toll of large mortgages and the opportunity cost of tying up capital in property rather than more flexible or higher-return investments.

Financially, property gains may also be less impressive than they appear. After accounting for stamp duties, interest, taxes, and maintenance, returns can be modest, and losses are not uncommon. Property is also a concentrated, illiquid asset—difficult to sell partially and heavily reliant on market conditions.

Beyond finances, upgrading can reduce flexibility and freedom. Heavy debt may limit career choices, delay life decisions, and erode peace of mind. While safeguards like loan limits prevent over-borrowing, they do not guarantee comfort or long-term affordability.

Ultimately, upgrading should not be an automatic goal but a deliberate decision. Buyers should consider not just potential profits, but also lifestyle impact, financial resilience, and whether the move truly supports a meaningful and sustainable way of living.

Investing Updates: DeFi yields are crashing so hard that they can't compete with a traditional savings account


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ChatGPT:


Decentralized finance (DeFi) is facing a sharp decline in yields, undermining one of its core attractions: higher returns in exchange for higher risk. In 2026, leading protocols like Aave now offer around 2.6% APY on stablecoins such as USDC—below the roughly 3.1% available through traditional platforms like Interactive Brokers. This reversal means investors are taking on greater smart contract and security risks while earning less than in traditional finance (TradFi).

During the 2021–2022 boom, DeFi yields often exceeded 20%, with some protocols offering far higher returns. However, those rates were largely driven by token incentives and speculative demand, which have since faded. Today, “organic yield” based on borrowing demand has weakened significantly, dragging rates down across the sector. Even standout projects like Ethena have seen yields drop from over 40% to around 3.5%, alongside declining deposits.

The few remaining competitive yields—typically between 3.5% and 6%—are increasingly tied to real-world assets such as U.S. Treasuries or private credit. While this helps boost returns, it blurs the line between DeFi and traditional finance, which some investors aimed to avoid.

At the same time, risks remain high. Crypto exploits surged to $2.47 billion in 2025, with attacks evolving beyond code vulnerabilities to include social engineering and operational failures. Incidents like the Resolv exploit highlight how even non-technical weaknesses can cause major losses.

Adding pressure, potential regulation such as the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act could restrict passive stablecoin yields, further limiting DeFi’s appeal.

With lower returns, persistent risks, and regulatory uncertainty, DeFi’s value proposition is weakening. Investors must now reconsider whether the reduced rewards still justify the exposure.

Monday, 6 April 2026

Investing Updates: What to Expect in the Week Ahead (March CPI, FOMC Minutes, Core PCE & Earnings from DAL, APLD)


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Claude:


Week Ahead: CPI, FOMC Minutes, and Key Earnings in Focus

The week's dominant macro event is Friday's March CPI print, with Bloomberg Economics forecasting a sharp +0.9% month-on-month surge — the largest since June 2022 — pushing the year-on-year rate to 3.3%, driven primarily by a gasoline spike linked to the ongoing Iran conflict. The critical question is whether this represents a one-off energy shock or the beginning of a broader inflation re-acceleration that closes the door on near-term Fed rate cuts.

Wednesday's FOMC minutes from the March 17–18 meeting are expected to confirm broad consensus to hold rates steady, with Chair Powell maintaining a high bar for any easing until core inflation trends convincingly toward 2%. Thursday's Core PCE reading is forecast at +0.44% month-on-month, with the year-on-year rate edging down slightly to 3.0%.

On the activity side, Monday's ISM Services PMI and Tuesday's durable goods orders are both expected to hold up reasonably well, keeping the macro backdrop "solid but inflationary." With the VIX elevated, markets are likely to stay cautious heading into the Thursday–Friday risk window.

Key earnings include Delta Air Lines (Wednesday), which will serve as a live read on airlines' ability to pass fuel cost increases through to consumers via higher fares. Applied Digital and BlackBerry also report, offering insights into AI data centre monetisation and cybersecurity spending respectively.

In markets last week, Intel surged after repurchasing Apollo's stake in its Irish chip facility, Microsoft unveiled new proprietary AI models, and Nvidia benefited from sustained AI hardware demand. Tesla fell after missing delivery expectations, while Micron staged a partial recovery following early pressure over reduced AI memory demand concerns.

Investing Updates: Ascendas REIT Preferential Offering: Asking $300M From Unitholders to Buy $1.4B in Properties. Should You Give?


Source:



Claude:


Ascendas REIT's $1.4B Acquisition: Should Unitholders Participate?

CapitaLand Ascendas REIT (CLAR) has announced a S$1.4 billion acquisition of three assets, backed by an Equity Fund Raising (EFR) targeting at least S$900 million. While dilution is an immediate concern for unitholders, the underlying assets and deal structure suggest a strategically sound move.

The three acquisitions span developed markets: a logistics complex at 25 Loyang Crescent, Singapore (S$504.2M, 6.9% NPI yield, fully occupied); a 50% stake in Ascent at Singapore Science Park (S$245M, 5.6% yield); and a 49% interest in a Greater Osaka data centre (S$620.7M, 4.3% yield), fully leased with a ~14-year lease featuring annual rent escalations.

Together, these assets improve CLAR's portfolio meaningfully — overall occupancy rises from 90.9% to 91.5%, and the Weighted Average Lease Expiry (WALE) extends from 3.7 to 4.3 years, locking in more visible recurring revenue. The acquisitions are also DPU accretive by 2.12%, while leverage increases by just 0.7 percentage points.

The EFR comprises a private placement — heavily oversubscribed by institutional investors — and a preferential offering open to existing unitholders at S$2.35–S$2.40 per unit, a 4.5%–6.5% discount to pre-announcement prices, helping offset dilution. The preferential offering opens 7 April, with a deadline of 15 April 2026.

The key risk is the macro environment. Ongoing Middle East tensions could delay interest rate cuts, keeping borrowing costs elevated and pressuring REIT valuations. However, financing this deal primarily through equity rather than debt is a prudent move that protects CLAR's balance sheet.

Overall, for long-term investors, participation in the preferential offering appears worthwhile.

Comments:

Yet another Rights issue in one of the old REITs in my portfolio.

I don't think this is a good time to do this.

Will subscribe to it as I'm still having a long runway to retirement.

Monday, 30 March 2026

Investing Updates: What to Expect in the Week Ahead(PMI, Unemployment Rate, and Earnings from RZLV, GRRR, NKE and LAES)


Source:



Claude:


Week Ahead Summary (March 30 – April 3)

Macro Focus This week is dominated by a packed U.S. economic calendar testing three pillars simultaneously: consumer sentiment, labor demand, and spending. Key releases include Consumer Confidence and JOLTS (March 31), ADP employment, retail sales, and ISM Manufacturing (April 1), jobless claims (April 2), and the marquee March nonfarm payrolls report (April 3). If these data points soften in unison, markets will lean into a growth-cooling narrative; if resilient, a "higher-for-longer" rates mindset may reassert itself.

Market Note U.S. equity markets are closed Friday for Good Friday, despite the jobs report dropping that morning. Initial reactions will play out in futures, bonds, FX, and commodities — potentially making Monday's open more volatile.

Key Earnings Nike (NKE) reports Tuesday after the close and is the week's most important company event. Investors want signs of North America stabilization, inventory normalization, gross margin recovery, and clearer China guidance. A cautious tone could drag on discretionary retail broadly. Other names reporting include Rezolve AI and Gorilla Technology (Monday), SEALSQ Corp and Bitfarms (Tuesday), and Cal-Maine Foods (Wednesday).

Market Sentiment Broader markets have been under pressure from surging oil prices and geopolitical tensions, pushing the Nasdaq into correction territory. AI-related names remain central — Nvidia holds its position as the AI bellwether, Arm Holdings surged on data-center chip ambitions, and Apple re-entered the AI conversation. Micron slid ~16% after Alphabet unveiled memory-efficiency technology raising demand concerns. Tesla continues trading as an AI/robotics story rather than purely an EV play.

Comments:

Challenging times continue...

Friday, 27 March 2026

Investing Updates: Singapore sets out plan to support gold trading amid growing interest


Source:



Gemini:


Singapore is significantly expanding its gold ecosystem to establish itself as a premier global trading hub. On March 27, 2026, Chee Hong Tat, Deputy Chairman of the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS), unveiled a strategic plan focused on four key areas to capitalize on the growing investor interest in vaulting and trading gold within the region.

Core Strategic Pillars

The Gold Market Development Working Group, established in January 2026, will focus on:

  • Infrastructure Enhancement: Improving physical facilities for the storage and transportation of gold.

  • Sovereign Services: Offering specialized gold storage for foreign central banks and sovereign entities, leveraging Singapore’s reputation for safety and security.

  • Product Diversification: Broadening the range of gold-related capital market products available to investors.

  • Clearing and Settlement: Implementing a secure system for transferring assets, specifically addressing both the London-standard large bars (12.4kg) and the Asian-preferred kilobars (1kg).

Economic Impact

Mr. Chee emphasized that gold trading will serve as a new pillar for Singapore’s wealth and asset management sector. By building this ecosystem, the nation aims to attract more global assets and create high-quality jobs.

Addressing regional competition, specifically from Hong Kong, Mr. Chee noted that the global demand for a "safe haven" in an uncertain environment provides ample space for both hubs to coexist. Rather than reacting to short-term price fluctuations, Singapore is focused on long-term "environmental" growth. Detailed updates from the workgroup, which includes major banks and refineries, are expected throughout the year.

Comments:

Interesting move by government.

Thursday, 26 March 2026

Investing Updates: Gold turns volatile amid Middle East conflict. What investors should watch next


Source:



Claude:


Gold Price Volatility Amid Middle East Conflict

Gold has experienced dramatic swings recently, hitting a record high of US$5,417 per ounce on 3 March 2026 before plunging over 20% to around US$4,410 by late March — erasing all year-to-date gains in one of its steepest weekly declines in decades.

What triggered the sell-off?

The conflict began when US and Israeli forces struck Iran on 28 February. While gold initially rallied on safe-haven demand, market focus quickly shifted to inflation and interest rates. The war pushed Brent crude above US$112 — up 40% since hostilities began — fuelling inflation fears that have kept the Federal Reserve hawkish. With the Fed holding rates at 3.5–3.75% and signalling only one cut in 2026 (markets now price in none), rising bond yields and a stronger US dollar weighed heavily on gold. A cascade of forced selling accelerated the drop once prices broke below the psychologically important US$5,000 level.

What supports gold longer-term?

Despite the pullback, structural demand remains intact. Gold ETFs recorded their ninth consecutive month of inflows in February, with US$5.3 billion added and total holdings reaching a record 4,171 tonnes. Central banks continued buying, with the buyer base widening to include Malaysia, South Korea, and Indonesia. China extended its purchasing streak to 15 consecutive months.

Key technical level to watch: US$4,066–4,090, where the 200-day moving average sits. A break below could see prices test US$3,500.

The recommendation is to treat gold as a long-term diversifier (5–10% allocation), building exposure gradually through dollar-cost averaging rather than timing the market.

Comments:

Good information.

Tuesday, 24 March 2026

Investing Updates: The second coming of S-chips is different


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ChatGPT:


Singapore is making a renewed push to attract Chinese companies to list on the Singapore Exchange (SGX), but with a far more cautious and targeted strategy than past attempts. This marks a “second coming” of S-chips—Chinese firms listed in Singapore—following earlier waves that ultimately failed due to weak governance and regulatory gaps.

The original S-chip wave began in the late 1990s as Singapore sought to rebuild market size after losing Malaysian listings. While China’s economic rise made these companies attractive, many firms lacked transparency, had poor fundamentals, and operated with limited regulatory oversight. By 2008, numerous accounting scandals and fraud cases led to a collapse in investor confidence, tarnishing the S-chip label.

This time, regulators are taking a different approach. Instead of smaller, lesser-known firms seeking primary listings, the focus is on established Chinese companies pursuing secondary listings in Singapore. Many of these firms are already listed on major exchanges such as Hong Kong, Shanghai, or Shenzhen, meaning they are subject to stricter disclosure standards, governance requirements, and ongoing investor scrutiny.

In addition, new listing criteria introduce stronger financial discipline. Companies must have a market capitalisation of at least S$1 billion and raise at least S$200 million, or 10% of their market value. These thresholds aim to filter out weaker firms and ensure only sizable, credible businesses participate.

This more selective strategy addresses the core weaknesses of the earlier S-chip era by prioritising quality over quantity and leveraging existing regulatory frameworks. With better oversight, stronger companies, and higher entry standards, Singapore’s latest effort to attract Chinese listings stands a better chance of success in building market scale and restoring investor trust.

Comments:

I was too young to understand much during the first S-chip wave.

Would be interesting to see what comes next.

Monday, 23 March 2026

Investing Updates: What to Expect in the Week Ahead (Iran War Impact and Earnings from GameStop, Carnival)


Source:



Gemini:


The week ahead is dominated by geopolitical instability and a waning earnings season. Markets are reeling from four consecutive weekly declines, with major indices entering oversold territory. The primary catalyst is the escalating U.S.-Iran conflict; global trade flows and commodity pricing remain volatile, especially following Donald Trump’s ultimatum regarding the Strait of Hormuz. High energy prices are fueling "sticky" inflation, pushing 10-year Treasury yields to seven-month highs.

Corporate Highlights & Earnings

  • GameStop (Tuesday): Reporting Q4 results, the retailer faces a projected revenue drop (under $1B) due to store closures. Despite "meme stock" momentum following Michael Burry’s bullish stance, growth relies heavily on collectibles and investment interest.

  • Carnival (Wednesday): While forecasting strong annual EBITDA growth, the cruise line faces headwinds from Middle East travel disruptions and surging marine fuel costs.

  • Tesla: Elon Musk’s ambitious "TERAFAB" initiative—a massive chip manufacturing JV—aims for 1 terawatt capacity. Analysts remain focused on the "flywheel effect" of Robotaxis and the Optimus robot.

  • NVIDIA: Following GTC 2026, the company is targeting $1 trillion in revenue by 2027, driven by the new Rubin architecture.

  • Super Micro Computer (SMCI): Shares plummeted 33% recently due to smuggling allegations and negative cash flow, despite triple-digit revenue growth.

In short, investors are balancing AI-driven optimism against the harsh realities of potential war and persistent inflation.

Comments:

Not much catalysts for upswing unless the war ends.