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The main macro catalyst arrives on Wednesday with the release of February’s Consumer Price Index (CPI). Economists expect headline inflation to rise slightly but forecast core CPI to slow to around 0.19% month-on-month, down from 0.30% previously. If the data confirms continued disinflation, it could support market expectations for policy easing later this year.
Friday’s release of January core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation—the Fed’s preferred gauge—is expected to show a hotter reading of about 0.40% month-on-month, pushing the annual rate to roughly 3.1%. However, markets may downplay this backward-looking data if the more recent CPI reading suggests inflation pressures are easing.
Other economic indicators include Tuesday’s NFIB Small Business Optimism index and existing home sales, which are expected to soften to about 3.84 million annualized. Thursday’s initial jobless claims should remain low, indicating limited layoffs even as hiring demand softens.
Corporate earnings will also drive market sentiment. Electric-vehicle maker Nio will be evaluated on progress toward profitability and margin improvement. Oracle’s report will be scrutinized for growth in its cloud infrastructure business and whether artificial-intelligence demand can accelerate revenue without hurting margins.
Later in the week, Dick’s Sporting Goods will provide insight into consumer demand and retail trends, while Adobe’s results will test whether its generative-AI features are translating into stronger subscription growth.
Overall, with multiple economic releases and earnings reports concentrated mid-week onward, traders are expected to stay cautious and tactical, focusing on highly liquid sectors such as AI technology, semiconductors, and crypto-related stocks while monitoring potential sector rotations.
