The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) kept its monetary policy settings unchanged for the second consecutive quarter at its October 2025 review, maintaining the current rate of appreciation of the Singapore dollar nominal effective exchange rate (S$NEER) policy band, along with its width and centre. The decision, widely expected by economists, reflects MAS’s confidence in the economy’s resilience amid moderating inflation and global uncertainty.
MAS also lowered its 2025 inflation forecasts, projecting core inflation at around 0.5% and headline inflation between 0.5% and 1.0%, down from the previous 0.5%–1.5% range. The central bank expects core inflation to bottom out soon and rise gradually in 2026 as temporary disinflationary factors fade.
The policy statement struck a more optimistic tone than July’s, noting that while growth will moderate, “the extent of the downturn should be contained.” Economists such as Maybank’s Chua Hak Bin and UOB’s Jester Koh said MAS’s language suggests confidence in maintaining stability and conserving policy space for potential action in 2026.
Recent data supports this optimism. Core inflation eased to 0.3% in August, while headline inflation dipped to 0.5%. Meanwhile, Singapore’s Q3 GDP grew 2.9% year on year, surpassing forecasts despite trade headwinds. MAS said the output gap remains positive, indicating above-trend growth for now, though it expects a return to near-trend pace in 2026.
Easing global import costs, improved productivity, and government subsidies have helped cool price pressures. MAS reaffirmed it remains “in an appropriate position to respond effectively” to any risks to medium-term price stability, signaling a steady stance heading into 2026.
Opinion:
Pray that economic mixed rice prices stay the same!
Singapore’s economy expanded 2.9% year on year in Q3 2025, outperforming economists’ forecasts of 2%, despite global trade tensions and new US tariffs. The Ministry of Trade and Industry (MTI) said the stronger-than-expected performance reflected resilience in construction, services, and domestic consumption, even as manufacturing growth stalled. Quarter-on-quarter, manufacturing rose 6.1%, rebounding from a 0.7% contraction, while construction grew 3.1%, supported by both public and private projects. Services industries expanded 3.5%, led by finance, ICT, and professional services.
Analysts attributed the growth to fiscal stimulus, falling interest rates, and AI-driven demand in tech exports, which offset external headwinds. Maybank and Goldman Sachs raised their 2025 GDP forecasts to 3.5% and 3.6%respectively, while RHB lifted its estimate to 3%, citing resilient domestic demand. However, economists warned that growth momentum may ease in Q4 as front-loading of US-bound exports fades and uncertainty persists over possible tariffs on semiconductors and pharmaceuticals, which make up nearly a third of Singapore’s US exports.
The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) noted that the economy grew 3.9% in the first three quarters of 2025, but expects moderation ahead as trade activity normalises. It added that AI-related investments, particularly in memory chips and servers, should support manufacturing for the rest of the year. Retail spending remains stable, though benefits from SG60 vouchers are set to taper. Overall, while Singapore’s near-term outlook remains cautiously positive, external risks and tariff uncertainties could weigh on exports and investments heading into 2026.
The week ahead features key U.S. bank earnings, major macro events, and critical inflation indicators. Earnings season resumes in full with big banks leading. On Tuesday (Oct 14), JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Citigroup, Wells Fargo, and BlackRock open the season. Investors will watch whether trading and dealmaking activity stayed strong, how banks manage consumer credit quality, and updates on capital returns and Citi’s Banamex divestment.
Wednesday (Oct 15) sees results from Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, and ASML. BofA’s net interest income and cost control are in focus, while Morgan Stanley may benefit from revived M&A and IPO activity and lower capital requirements. United Airlines will highlight travel demand trends amid yield and fuel cost pressures.
On Thursday (Oct 16), Charles Schwab and CSX Corp report. Schwab’s trading activity, client inflows, and resilience in net interest income will show how well it is navigating higher rates. CSX’s update under new CEO Steve Angel will be watched for strategy amid ongoing rail consolidation.
Friday (Oct 17) features American Express, where sustained spending could support the upper end of its 8–10% annual revenue growth target. Analysts will monitor travel recovery, credit trends, and marketing spend flexibility.
Macro focus shifts to the IMF–World Bank meetings (Oct 13–18), a busy lineup of central bank speeches, and Fed Chair Powell’s Oct 14 address. A U.S. government shutdown delays key releases like CPI (to Oct 24), spotlighting softer data such as NFIB optimism, Empire Manufacturing, and the Beige Book. Bloomberg Economics projects muted job growth and easing inflation pressures, supporting expectations of a Fed rate cut by late October and a shift toward cyclical sectors.
In the week ahead, investors will closely watch two very different earnings reports alongside key U.S. macroeconomic data and commentary from the Federal Reserve.
On October 9, PepsiCo (PEP) reports before market open. The consumer giant has struggled in 2025, with shares down 7% year-to-date, lagging the S&P 500 by 23%. Analysts forecast Q3 EPS of $2.26, a 2.18% decline year-over-year, reflecting ongoing headwinds. Despite this, PepsiCo has consistently outperformed expectations, beating estimates in all but one quarter over the past two years. Looking forward, analysts expect earnings to return to mid-single-digit growth in 2026, underpinned by its strong execution track record.
Later that day, Applied Digital (APLD) reports after market close. Riding the AI infrastructure boom, its stock has surged 234% this year, though its valuation looks stretched with an EV/Sales ratio of 44x versus the sector’s 4x. Investor excitement is driven by its expanded $CoreWeave lease, boosting contracted capacity to 400MW and potentially $11 billion in revenue. The market anticipates further large-scale deals, with management confirming talks with a U.S. hyperscaler, keeping sentiment highly bullish.
On the macro side, the spotlight falls on Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s upcoming speech, widely seen as the key event shaping policy expectations. Markets will parse his tone for clues on the timing and scale of future rate moves. His comments will be informed by the delayed September Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, which provides a comprehensive view of labor market health. Ahead of that, Initial Jobless Claims, expected to tick up to 223K from 218K, will offer a more immediate read on employment, reinforcing the narrative of gradual cooling the Fed has been monitoring.
The week ahead brings a mix of corporate earnings and key U.S. economic data that could shape market sentiment. Sportswear giant Nike (NKE.US) is set to release Q3 results on September 30 after market close. The stock has rebounded 13.9% this quarter, outpacing its industry peers. Analysts forecast revenue of $10.98 billion, a 5% sequential decline, and EPS of $0.27, down 60% year-on-year. Nike has guided for mid-single-digit sales decreases, with consensus expecting a 7% drop. The company is also contending with $1 billion in additional structural costs from new tariffs. While management is pursuing production shifts and partnerships to mitigate the impact, gross margins could contract by about 75 basis points.
On the macro front, the September nonfarm payrolls report due Friday takes center stage. The release is seen as critical for the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook, as investors currently expect two rate cuts before the end of 2025. Forecasts are highly uncertain, ranging from a contraction of 20,000 to a gain of 100,000 jobs. The report could also face delays if lawmakers fail to avert a potential government shutdown on October 1.
Other major releases include the ISM Manufacturing PMI (Wednesday), expected to tick up to 49.1 from 48.7, and the ISM Services PMI (Friday), projected to remain at 52, indicating modest expansion. Regional Fed surveys suggest mixed signals, with softening demand but improving employment conditions.
Together, Nike’s earnings and a full slate of economic data—led by Friday’s payrolls—will guide market expectations on consumer demand, corporate resilience, and the Fed’s next moves.
As earnings season winds down, a few high-profile companies and key economic data points will dominate the week ahead.
Micron Technology (MU) will report fiscal Q4 earnings after Tuesday’s close. The stock has surged 37% this month and is up 94% year-to-date, fueled by strong demand for high-bandwidth memory chips used in AI data centers. Analysts expect adjusted earnings of $2.79 per share, up 136% year-on-year, with revenue projected at $11.13 billion, a 44% increase. For Q1, Wall Street forecasts EPS of $3.01, up 68%, and revenue of $11.84 billion, up 36%. Micron recently set a new all-time high, surpassing its June 2024 peak.
Costco (COST) will release results Thursday. Oppenheimer raised its Q4 EPS forecast to $5.70 from $5.40, though consensus stands slightly higher at $5.81. Earlier this month, Costco reported quarterly sales of $84.4 billion, an 8% increase but below analysts’ $86.08 billion expectation. Investors will be watching for signs of margin strength and membership trends.
On the macro front, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is scheduled to deliver his first public remarks since the Fed’s initial 2025 rate cut. Markets are eager for signals on the pace of further easing. Friday brings the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge—the core PCE index—expected to rise 0.22% month-on-month, lifting annual core inflation to 3% from 2.9%. Personal income is forecast to grow 0.3%, while personal spending is seen rising 0.4%. These reports are unlikely to surprise since CPI and PPI data have already been released.
Other highlights include August existing home sales on Tuesday and a range of additional economic releases, rounding out a week of earnings and Fed-focused developments.
What to Expect in the Week Ahead: Fed Decision, FedEx Earnings, and Meta Connect
Investors are focused on the Federal Reserve’s two-day policy meeting starting Tuesday, alongside several key corporate earnings and events.
On the earnings front, General Mills and Bullish will report Wednesday, followed by Darden Restaurants before the market opens Thursday and FedEx after the close. Analysts expect Bullish to post Q2 2025 revenue of USD 56.3M with EPS of USD 0.88. FedEx is forecast to deliver Q1 2026 revenue of USD 21.67B, up 0.44% year-over-year, with EPS of USD 3.32, reflecting a 3.4% increase. However, FedEx continues to face headwinds including sluggish business-to-business demand, weakening e-commerce volumes, and the drag from U.S. trade policies on global shipping.
Separately, Meta Platforms will host its Meta Connect developer conference, spotlighting AI, extended reality (XR), and wearable technology. The highlight will be the unveiling of Meta’s next-generation smart glasses—its first consumer-ready eyewear with a built-in display.
Macroeconomic data will also shape market sentiment. Monday brings the Empire State Manufacturing Index, followed by Retail Sales and Industrial Production Tuesday. Wednesday will see Housing Starts, Building Permits, and the Fed’s policy decision, with Jobless Claims due Thursday.
The Fed meeting is widely anticipated, with markets and Bloomberg Intelligence expecting a 25-basis-point rate cut—the first since December. This cut appears less driven by core economic data and more by investor expectations and political pressure from the White House. Chair Jerome Powell is expected to strike a cautious, neutral tone in his press conference, emphasizing the Fed’s balance between price stability and employment, while signaling independence in decision-making.
The upcoming week is packed with market-moving events spanning corporate earnings, product launches, conferences, and macroeconomic data.
On Tuesday, Apple will unveil its iPhone 17 lineup, with particular attention on the much-anticipated ultrathin “iPhone Air.” Updated Apple Watch and AirPods models are also expected. Shares have rallied in advance, though concerns about device pricing remain.
Earnings will also draw focus. Chewy (CHWY) reports Wednesday, with profits projected to fall 79% to $0.14 per share despite 7.6% revenue growth. Adobe (ADBE) follows Thursday, expected to post 11% EPS growth to $5.18 and 9% revenue growth to $5.91 billion. Investors will watch closely how its digital media and marketing business sustains momentum. Oracle (ORCL) is also set to release results.
Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs’ Communacopia conference runs Monday–Thursday in San Francisco. Executives from Uber, Netflix, Alphabet Cloud, OpenAI, and Meta will outline strategies, potentially sparking stock moves through high-profile “fireside chats.”
Macroeconomic data may prove decisive. Bloomberg forecasts August CPI at 0.40% headline and 0.33% core, the strongest monthly readings since January. Year-over-year, that translates to 3.0% and 3.1% respectively, fueled by higher costs in autos, hotels, and airfare, while tariff-sensitive goods like apparel may have slowed. Labor indicators remain mixed: initial jobless claims are expected to edge higher after an unusual late-August decline, reflecting a cooling market. The University of Michigan consumer survey is likely to show weaker sentiment, with rising concerns about unemployment, tariffs, and prices.
Together, these developments—Apple’s product cycle, tech earnings, strategic updates from Communacopia, and inflation data—set the stage for heightened volatility and investor recalibration across both growth and cyclical sectors.
Opinion:
Excited about the upcoming Apple event this week. I’m planning to finally refresh my 5-year-old Apple Watch π. With the new iPhone lineup and updated wearables expected, it’ll be interesting to see how markets react to Apple’s announcements.
Beyond tech headlines, this week could bring plenty of market swings. Key earnings from Adobe and Oracle, plus inflation data and labor market updates, mean volatility is likely to stay elevated.
Singapore Pools’ TOTO remains one of the most popular forms of betting in Singapore, with jackpots starting at $1 million and potentially snowballing into multi-million-dollar prizes. Cascade draws occur if no Group 1 winners emerge after three consecutive draws, passing the prize down to lower groups. While past draws have produced eye-catching payouts – such as $19.4 million shared among eight winners in 2022 and $13.1 million won by a single ticket in 2024 – the math shows TOTO is financially unfavorable.
Only 54% of ticket sales fund the prize pool, with 38% allocated to the top prize. The odds of winning Group 1 are a staggering 1 in 13,983,816, meaning that statistically, a player would only hit the jackpot once in about 134,500 years if buying every draw. Even when considering all prize groups, the expected return is poor.
If calculated in isolation, ignoring multiple winners, a $1 ticket could be seen as having a present value of $68.57. However, factoring in historical averages of shared prizes across groups slashes this expected value to just $0.54 per ticket – implying players lose nearly half their money in the long run.
The takeaway is clear: while buying an occasional ticket for fun or during festive draws can provide excitement, TOTO should not be viewed as a get-rich-quick scheme or a rational investment. The consistent “winner” is Singapore Pools, not the bettor. Responsible play means treating TOTO as light entertainment rather than a financial strategy.
Opinion:
Article excludes important factors such as god's helping hand, karma, devil's luck, etc π
September will be packed with major financial and tech events that could shape market sentiment. The U.S. stock market will close on September 1 for Labor Day, followed by the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book release on September 2. Broadcom reports earnings on September 4, with analysts projecting Q3 EPS of $1.66 and revenue growth of 21% year-over-year to $15.82 billion.
Apple’s highly anticipated “Awe Dropping” event takes place on September 9, where it is expected to unveil the iPhone 17 and new Apple Watch models. Reports suggest Apple may introduce a super-slim iPhone, prioritizing sleek design over battery and camera performance.
From September 17–19, President Donald Trump will visit the United Kingdom. Meanwhile, September 17 will be especially significant for investors. Meta Connect 2025 kicks off, with CEO Mark Zuckerberg expected to present updates on AI glasses and the company’s metaverse strategy. That same day, the FOMC will announce its interest rate decision, widely expected to include a 25 basis point cut, with markets pricing in high odds of multiple cuts this year.
Key U.S. economic data releases—covering jobs, inflation, and spending—will further influence market direction.
Opinion:
Exciting tech time from Apple.
Interested on the developments for Apple Watch and AirPods.
Next week’s earnings reports from Home Depot, Lowe’s, Target, BJ’s Wholesale Club, and Walmart will be closely watched. The Jackson Hole symposium, featuring Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech, will be a key event, with markets anticipating hints on potential interest rate cuts. Additionally, the Fed will release July policy meeting minutes, and President Trump may announce new tariffs on semiconductors.
Opinion :
Predicting not much surprises this week.
Should be a sideways market.
It's middle of the month now so time to DCA VWRA again.
Why Chinese Bubble Tea Chains Are Brewing Billions (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1ghcW81-MJs&utm_source=chatgpt.com)
Here’s a concise breakdown of the video “Why Chinese Bubble Tea Chains Are Brewing Billions”:
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Key Takeaways
- Global Phenomenon: Bubble tea has evolved from a viral novelty into a multi-billion dollar global industry. In 2025, major Chinese brands like Mixue Ice Cream & Tea are at the forefront of this boom. (YouTube (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1ghcW81-MJs&utm_source=chatgpt.com))
- Brands Leading the Charge:
- Mixue Ice Cream & Tea — Now a powerhouse with internationally expanding operations.
- Guming, Heytea, and ChaPanda also play significant roles in shaping this booming market. (Financial Times (https://www.ft.com/content/7cd22551-22cb-4777-8d4d-e79be48f143d?utm_source=chatgpt.com), Wikipedia (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ChaPanda?utm_source=chatgpt.com))
- Investor Interest & IPO Activity:
- ChaPanda is preparing a listing in Hong Kong aiming to raise approximately $330 million, fueling its international ambitions. (Financial Times (https://www.ft.com/content/7cd22551-22cb-4777-8d4d-e79be48f143d?utm_source=chatgpt.com))
- Mixue has already listed in Hong Kong, raising $444 million, with share prices surging 43% on debut. (Financial Times (https://www.ft.com/content/c20bc216-1d95-4df2-a787-407d2b5d47fc?utm_source=chatgpt.com))
- Guming also completed an IPO, raising $232 million. (Financial Times (https://www.ft.com/content/c20bc216-1d95-4df2-a787-407d2b5d47fc?utm_source=chatgpt.com))
- Market Growth in Numbers:
- The Chinese market for freshly made tea beverages grew from RMB 53.4 billion ($21B)** in 2023. (Financial Times (https://www.ft.com/content/7cd22551-22cb-4777-8d4d-e79be48f143d?utm_source=chatgpt.com), Wikipedia (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ChaPanda?utm_source=chatgpt.com))
- Why Bubble Tea Thrives:
- It's seen as an affordable yet enjoyable indulgence—making it resilient amid economic stress. (Financial Times (https://www.ft.com/content/7cd22551-22cb-4777-8d4d-e79be48f143d?utm_source=chatgpt.com), The New Yorker
- Innovative branding and deep cultural appeal—including guochao (“national trendy”) aesthetics—have made bubble tea culturally resonant and aspirational. (The New Yorker (https://www.newyorker.com/culture/annals-of-gastronomy/where-the-bubble-tea-industry-has-gone-into-hyperdrive?utm_source=chatgpt.com))
- Efficient food-delivery infrastructure in China plays a crucial role in supporting this sector. (The New Yorker (https://www.newyorker.com/culture/annals-of-gastronomy/where-the-bubble-tea-industry-has-gone-into-hyperdrive?utm_source=chatgpt.com))
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Summary Table
Topic
Insight
Economic Scale
Bubble tea is now a multi-billion dollar global industry.
Fast-Growing Brands
Mixue, Heytea, ChaPanda, and Guming dominate the market.
Recent IPOs
Mixue and Guming have gone public, ChaPanda plans to follow suit.
Market Expansion
Industry value rose dramatically from 2018 to 2023.
Cultural Appeal
Creative branding and cultural identity are major growth drivers.
Delivery Ecosystem
Rapid delivery networks fuel high consumer engagement.
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Final Thoughts
The video highlights how bubble tea has transcended its humble origins to become a powerhouse in the beverage industry. Chinese chains are not just expanding domestically—they’re establishing footprints overseas, backed by investor capital, cultural marketing, and efficient logistics.
Opinion :
Bubble tea's an amazing invention.
I like to drink occasionally.
Prices are too high to drink regularly as compared to traditional kopi c, teh c, etc.
Palantir (Mon) may deliver a strong quarter post-$10B Army deal.
DuPont, Caterpillar, Pfizer (Tue): DuPont’s breakup progress, Caterpillar’s infra boost, and Pfizer’s trial results are key.
Disney, McDonald's (Wed): Streaming, parks, and menu updates drive interest.
Eli Lilly (Thu): Market watches GLP-1 rivalry with Novo Nordisk.
Macroeconomics:
The Fed stays on hold until Sept, awaiting more data. Tariff hikes from Trump’s order raise effective rates to 15–20%, fueling market caution amid a seasonally weak period.
Opinion :
Nothing ground breaking this week.
Last week's tariff impact will roll over to this week.
Predicting the bull market to continue. Buy the dip if you have at least 10 years+ time horizon.
GIC’s 20-year annualised real return slipped to 3.8%, its lowest in five years, amid global uncertainty. CEO Lim Chow Kiat and CIO Bryan Yeo warned of more volatile returns due to structural shifts like AI, climate change, and geopolitical tensions. GIC plans to boost portfolio resilience by prioritising “granularity and agility” beyond diversification. The US remains its largest investment market, with equities rising to 51% of the portfolio. GIC is also investing in AI-related firms and testing AI tools to enhance investment decision-making while remaining cautious of risks.
π July 2025: Key Financial Events to Watch (Summary)
July is packed with market-moving events across policy, earnings, and economic data:
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π July 1:
- ECB’s Sintra Forum: Global central bankers, including Fed Chair Powell, meet to discuss monetary policy.
- US ISM Manufacturing PMI: Offers insight into factory sentiment.
π July 3:
- June Non-Farm Payrolls & Unemployment Rate: Critical data to gauge labor market strength.
- Early Market Close: Ahead of July 4th holiday.
πΊπΈ July 4:
- US Markets Closed: Independence Day.
π§Ύ Before July 4:
- Trump’s “Big, Beautiful Bill”: Possible fiscal stimulus bill may pass.
πΌ July 9:
- Tariff Agreement Expiry: Could reignite trade tensions.
- Fed Minutes Released: Watch for signals of potential rate cuts.
π¦ July 15:
- Q2 Earnings Begin: Citigroup, JPMorgan, Wells Fargo to set the tone with key commentary.
πΉ July 15–17:
- Macro Data Trio:
- July 15: June CPI
- July 16: PPI
- July 17: Retail Sales
- Earnings Highlights: TSMC & Netflix report.
π July 30:
- Fed Rate Decision (2:00 p.m. ET)
- Powell Press Conference (2:30 p.m. ET): Watch for dovish tone and potential rate cut hints.
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π Outlook:
With crucial data and decisions ahead, volatility is likely to spike. Investors should stay alert as July may shape market direction for the rest of 2025.
