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Monday, 29 December 2025

Investing Updates: What to Expect in the Week Ahead (FOMC Minutes, New Year's Day and Warren Buffett's Exit)


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U.S. markets head into the final days of 2025 on a strong footing, with the S&P 500 on track for an eighth straight monthly gain, its longest streak since 2017–2018. While technology stocks powered much of the multi-year rally, recent performance suggests a rotation toward financials, healthcare, transports and small caps. Trading conditions may be thin as markets close for New Year’s Day and investors digest delayed economic releases following the earlier federal shutdown.

The key macro event this week is the release of the Federal Reserve’s minutes from its December 9–10 meeting. At that meeting, the Fed delivered a third consecutive 25-basis-point rate cut, bringing the policy rate to 3.50%–3.75%. Policymakers modestly upgraded growth forecasts while trimming inflation expectations, reinforcing expectations of a gradual easing cycle. Markets will scrutinise the minutes for clues on the pace of future cuts, especially ahead of President Trump’s nomination of a new Fed chair to replace Jerome Powell.

Economic data highlights include U.S. pending home sales for November, jobless claims, mortgage rate updates, and the final S&P Global Manufacturing PMI. Housing data has been relatively resilient, helped by improving affordability and easing recession fears, while labour market indicators point to a gradual cooling rather than a sharp slowdown. Manufacturing activity, however, has softened, signalling slower momentum heading into 2026.

Beyond macro data, a major corporate milestone looms: Warren Buffett is set to step down as CEO of Berkshire Hathaway, with Greg Abel taking over leadership. Meanwhile, attention remains on heavily traded stocks such as Nvidia, Tesla and Apple, as well as Rocket Lab, which has seen sharp post-holiday volatility following recent contract wins and record highs.

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