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The coming week is set to be pivotal for markets as a backlog of U.S. economic data—delayed by a recent government shutdown—finally comes out. Investors will closely watch labor market and inflation readings for clues on the Federal Reserve’s next policy move, alongside a heavy slate of corporate earnings and remarks from Fed officials.
The key macro focus begins Wednesday with the release of January nonfarm payrolls, which will provide updates on job creation, unemployment, and wage growth. This is followed on Friday by the January Consumer Price Index (CPI). Headline CPI is expected to hold at 2.6% year-on-year, while core inflation is forecast to ease slightly from 2.7% to 2.5%, potentially reinforcing expectations for future rate cuts.
Earnings season remains active. On Tuesday, Robinhood reports Q4 and full-year 2025 results after delivering strong growth earlier in the year, driven by higher trading volumes, expanding net interest income, and rising user engagement. Revenue is expected to grow over 30% year-on-year in Q4. Wednesday brings Shopify’s results, with solid double-digit EPS growth and nearly 27% revenue growth expected as e-commerce demand remains resilient. On Thursday, Coinbase reports earnings amid expectations of year-on-year declines in revenue and profit, reflecting tougher comparisons despite elevated crypto market activity.
Market volatility remains elevated. Last week saw the Dow Jones Industrial Average surge past 50,000 for the first time, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq ended slightly lower. Bitcoin fell below US$70,000, and precious metals experienced sharp swings. Among individual stocks, Palantir impressed with accelerating revenue and a 138% jump in total contract value, while AMD and Amazon declined on weaker guidance despite strong headline results.
Overall, the combination of inflation data, jobs numbers, and major earnings updates is likely to drive market direction in the week ahead.
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