Investing Updates: What to Expect in the Week Ahead (March CPI, FOMC Minutes, Core PCE & Earnings from DAL, APLD)

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Claude:

Week Ahead: CPI, FOMC Minutes, and Key Earnings in Focus

The week's dominant macro event is Friday's March CPI print, with Bloomberg Economics forecasting a sharp +0.9% month-on-month surge — the largest since June 2022 — pushing the year-on-year rate to 3.3%, driven primarily by a gasoline spike linked to the ongoing Iran conflict. The critical question is whether this represents a one-off energy shock or the beginning of a broader inflation re-acceleration that closes the door on near-term Fed rate cuts.

Wednesday's FOMC minutes from the March 17–18 meeting are expected to confirm broad consensus to hold rates steady, with Chair Powell maintaining a high bar for any easing until core inflation trends convincingly toward 2%. Thursday's Core PCE reading is forecast at +0.44% month-on-month, with the year-on-year rate edging down slightly to 3.0%.

On the activity side, Monday's ISM Services PMI and Tuesday's durable goods orders are both expected to hold up reasonably well, keeping the macro backdrop "solid but inflationary." With the VIX elevated, markets are likely to stay cautious heading into the Thursday–Friday risk window.

Key earnings include Delta Air Lines (Wednesday), which will serve as a live read on airlines' ability to pass fuel cost increases through to consumers via higher fares. Applied Digital and BlackBerry also report, offering insights into AI data centre monetisation and cybersecurity spending respectively.

In markets last week, Intel surged after repurchasing Apollo's stake in its Irish chip facility, Microsoft unveiled new proprietary AI models, and Nvidia benefited from sustained AI hardware demand. Tesla fell after missing delivery expectations, while Micron staged a partial recovery following early pressure over reduced AI memory demand concerns.